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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/15 10:51

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday

   Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 18 
to 20 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 13 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 18 
to 20 cents lower; wheat futures are 9 to 13 cents lower. The U.S. stock market 
is firmer at midday with the S&P 40 higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 points 
lower. The interest rate products are mixed. Energy trade has crude .10 lower 
and natural gas .10 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold 19.00 higher.


   Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with early lightly mixed trade 
turning to broad selling across all ags overnight with trade working just off 
the lows at midday. On the WASDE report, yield was unchanged at 181.0 bushels 
per acre (bpa) with old-crop carryout at 1.877 billion bushels (bb) versus 
2.056 bb expected with new crop at 2.097 bb versus 2.279 bb expected with world 
stocks little changed at 311.6 million metric tons (mmt) as USDA left South 
American production virtually unchanged. Ethanol margins should get a boost 
from corn staying near the lows while driving demand rebounds. Warmer weather 
looks to fade this week for much of the Corn Belt with moisture staying 
adequate in the short term. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to 
better conditions and development just ahead of the 5-year average. Basis 
action should remain sideways into midmonth. Weekly export inspections remained 
strong at 1.079 mmt. On the September chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.22 
is resistance with the recent low at $3.90 3/4 as support with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $3.76 as the next level down.


   Soybean futures washed out again to fresh lows overnight with a gap lower to 
start with action 18 to 20 cents lower at midday and broad product weakness as 
oil gave back a large chunk of recent gains. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 lower and oil 
is 30 to 40 points lower. On the report, we saw yield unchanged at 52.0 bpa 
with old-crop stocks at 345 million bushels (mb) versus 356 mb expected, 
new-crop at 435 mb versus 444 mb expected with world stocks 127.8 mmt versus 
126.9 mmt expected with South American production unchanged. Weather should 
remain good for crop development in the near term with the weekly report 
expected to show steady to slightly better conditions, with development just 
ahead of normal. Weekly export inspections were soft at 168,593 metric tons 
(mt). Basis should remain mostly steady in the short term with support from 
spreads. The September chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average at 
$11.02 with support at the fresh low at $10.36 1/4 scored Monday morning with 
deeply oversold conditions.


   Wheat futures are 9 to 13 cents lower at midday with selling pressure after 
disappointing numbers on the report, broad ag weakness, and selling pressure 
from Euro values. On the report, all-wheat production was 2.008 bb versus 1.912 
bb expected, with carryout at 856 mb versus 758 mb expected, with world stocks 
rising to 257.2 mmt from 252.3 mmt expected. Winter wheat harvest should be 
close to 75% complete with spring wheat conditions remaining very good as the 
crop develops around the 5-year average. Weekly export inspections improved at 
533,828 mt. The dollar remains at the bottom end of the range with light 
strength, while MATIF values gapped down to fresh lows for the move. On the KC 
September chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.89, with the 
fresh low at $5.50 1/4 as support.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala

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