Report day featured a host of surprises, starting with larger than expected cuts to corn and soybean yields. A significant cut was made to the U.S. soybean export forecast. And drastic changes were produced on the world corn balance sheet due to revisions made to Chinese supply estimates.
Corn yield dropped from 180.7 to 178.9 bushels per acre and fell short of the average trade guess of 180 bpa. Illinois yield was down 2 bushels to 210 bpa while Iowa dropped 6 bushels to 198 bpa. Sizable cuts were also made to yields for Minnesota and South Dakota.
Soybean yield was reduced from 53.1 to 52.1 bushels per acre to compare with a consensus estimate of 52.9 bpa. Illinois soybean yield was down 2 bushels to 64 bpa and Iowa was down 3 bushels to 58 bpa.
Corn carryout was pegged at 1.736 billion bushels, down from 1.813 bbu last month and comparing to an estimate near 1.773 bbu. The yield cut led to a 152 million bushel reduction for production, which more than offset at 25 mbu lowering of the export target.
Lower soybean yield pulled U.S. production down by 90 million bushels, but that wasn't enough to keep carryout from rising to 955 mbu. The domestic crush forecast was up 10 mbu but the export prediction shrunk by 160 mbu.