0
0
0
      West Central AGRI Services  
West Central Ag Grain Comments  07/09/18 10:02:01 AM

The commodities are lower this morning on profit taking following Friday’s rally.    Traders will be watching several things closely this week, such as any changes on the trade war front as the possibility of further tariffs being imposed remains as U.S./China tariffs were put into place on Friday.  Some analysts suggest China could still be a buyer of up to 15 MMT’s of U.S. soybeans, even with the 25% tariffs in place. That amount would represent about half of the 5-year average for U.S. soybean exports to China. Brazil will source much of China's needs, but with Brazil producing about 118 MMT of beans this year and with China needing to import about 100 MMT, there won't be enough beans in Brazil to satisfy all of China's demand after Brazil's domestic market is supplied.  Another scenario being bounced around is one that involves Brazil importing soybeans from the U.S. to help relieve strain on the domestic processing market. Early thoughts are that Brazil could purchase beans from the U.S. over the course of the new marketing year. There will be a host of countries like Brazil running the numbers on whether or not they can re-export soybeans brought in the from the U.S.  It is interesting to note that a  news story this morning is reporting that China will reimburse buyers for the cost of the 25% tariff on soybean imports from the U.S. if the cargoes are for state reserves, per Bloomberg (citing unidentified sources).  Traders will also be watching the weather across the Midwest as the forecast for the Corn Belt looks hot the next few weeks.  There is some disagreement among the major weather models over just how long the heat will last.  Most areas of the Corn Belt are thought to possess sufficient enough soil moisture to avoid crop damage if temperatures would moderate again after a week or so.  This afternoon will bring updated U.S. crop condition ratings.  The expectation is to see little change from last week as some areas have improved due to rain, while others may have suffered from too much rain. Last week 76% of the corn crop and 71% of the bean crop was rated good/excellent.  Thursday will bring the July WASDE report.  Market participants are looking for around a 250 mln. bu. increase in corn production from the USDA’s June report due to an increase in planted acres and by raising yield from 174.0 to 174.9 bpa.  For beans, production estimates are averaging about 25 mln. bu. above USDA’s June projection and an increase in yield from 48.5 to 48.6 bpa.  The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report was delayed last week due to the holiday and will be released later today.  Weekly U.S. export inspections will be released mid-morning.  Economic traders will be getting ready for earnings period as 200 S&P companies will be reporting over the next 2 weeks. Analysts will be looking at the effect of the trade war on their bottom line.

 

  
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN