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West Central Ag Grain Comments  12/09/19 9:05:42 AM


Soybeans have rallied nearly 35 cents the past week.   Basis levels have firmed as well.   The market is acting as if the producer has placed his beans in the bin and thrown the key away.   We remain wary on the trade talks with China.   South America is basically sold out of soybeans until March.   The new Argy government, looking for revenue, is looking at export taxes.   Our advice is sell a good portion of your old crop soybeans before March.   The market is watching dry weather in Argentina. 

This could be a busy week for the markets with the December crop report to be released on Tuesday. In addition, the British elections will be held on Thursday which likely seals the fate for the Brexit impasse. Also, at stake is the Dec 15th deadline for a new round of US tariffs on Chinese goods. Last Friday, China dropped import duties on US soybeans and pork as a good will gesture as negotiations near the Dec 15 deadline. 

Chinas Nov bean imports jumped to 8.28 MMT in November, up 54% from 5.38 MMT imported during the same timeframe a year ago. This also compares to the 6.18 MMT imported in the month of October. • Chinas hog herd grew by 2% in November with the sow heard growing 4%, according to Chinas ag ministry. Traders are beginning to wonder if the worst of the African Swine Fever is finally behind us. 

The average trade estimate for tomorrow
s crop report pegs the US corn carryout @ 1.919 bln bu vs 1.910 bln bu in the Nov report; bean stocks are estimated at 476 mln bu vs 475 mln bu in Nov; ending wheat stocks estimated near 1.010 bln bu vs 1.014 bln bu previously.


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