Manager's Comments 03/10/25 8:24:48 AM
Good morning. Corn and soybeans traded both sides of Friday’s closes during the overnight hours with wheat higher all night. Increasing concern regarding dry soils in the southern Plains as the HRW wheat crop emerges from dormancy is supporting the wheat market. Corn and soybeans are little changed at 6:45 AM as traders await tomorrow’s WASDE report which is expected to include a small drop in 24/25 U.S. corn ending stocks with soybean and wheat ending stocks steady with the February projections. The USDA’s estimate of Brazilian and Argentine corn and soybean production will probably be the most significant data contained in the report. Conab will release its monthly crop report on Thursday. The important Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports will be released three weeks from today on the final day of the month. The Dollar Index is continuing its slide lower; this morning the index is 0.182 weaker at 103.630. Energy markets are higher across the board to start the week. April crude oil is 31 cents stronger at 67.35. Gasoline futures are 2 cents higher. Deliveries against the March contract included 142 soybean, 10 Chicago wheat, 19 Kansas city wheat, 34 soybean meal, and 165 soybean oil contracts. China has imposed tariffs of 10 to 15% on U.S. ag exports. China also placed tariffs of 100% on Canadian canola and 25% on pork and seafood effective March 20th in response to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric cars and steel and aluminum. The tariffs are being imposed as China’s economy shows additional signs of weakness. China’s Consumer Price Index fell by 0.7% last month. The weak economy will make it more difficult for China to battle the U.S. and other western countries on the tariff front. South American weather looks favorable into late March as rain is forecast for dry areas of eastern Brazil beginning next week while Argentina is expected to have a period of below normal rainfall the next ten days to two weeks. It was wet again across most Argentine growing regions this past weekend with rain totals of 0.5 to 3.5” which did cause areas of localized flooding. Normally, we see quiet markets the day prior to a WASDE report, but these aren’t normal times. We’ll see how markets respond to China’s tariffs and any other fresh tariff news that develops as the day wears on. Have a good Monday.
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