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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/13 11:02

   Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 5 to 11 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
12 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 9 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 5 to 11 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
12 to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 9 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is firmer with the S&P up 90 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 40 points 
lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude 3.50 
higher and natural gas down .20. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold down 13.20.


   Corn futures are 5 to 11 cents lower with trade fading from early overnight 
gains after the post-report surge. On the report Thursday, new-crop yield was 
at 177.0 bushels per acre (bpa) versus 179.6 bpa expected with new-crop 
carryout at 1.36 billion bushels (bb) versus 1.315 bb expected; old crop was 
unchanged at 1.440 bb. South American production was unchanged and world stocks 
edged higher on reduced demand expectations. The ethanol margins will continue 
to be squeezed by input costs with soft driving demand and still burdensome 
stocks short term. The second crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch with 
mixed weather. Warmer and drier weather in much of the Corn Belt will boost 
planting in the U.S., along with emergence on planted acres. On the July 
contract chart, we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $7.96, which 
we have been unable to push above, then the lower Bollinger band at $7.72 as 


   Soybean futures are 12 to 21 cents higher at midday with trade still working 
in the lower end of the range. Better short-covering is developing as meal 
finally holds early strength. Meal $6.50 to $7.50 higher and oil is 85 to 100 
points higher. The report pegged new-crop yield at 51.5 bpa, .1 above the 
average guess, with carryout at 310 million bushels (mb), as expected. Old-crop 
carryout was at 235 mb versus 221 mb expcted and 260 mb last month with world 
stocks a bit lower on old crop, and a bit higher on new crop. South American 
harvest is nearing completion with better corn planting this week to set the 
table for better soybean planting pace. New-crop November continues to lose 
ground to corn in the short term as well, with planting delays lessening the 
urgency of competition for now, which could change into mid-month if corn can 
catch up close to average pace. The USDA announced 132,000 metric tons (mt) of 
old-crop soybeans sold to China. On the July soybean chart we have support at 
$15.78 on the fresh low with the lower Bollinger Band at $15.76 with the 20-day 
moving average well above the market at $16.56.


   Wheat futures are 3 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade fading from the 
fresh highs scored overnight after the limit-higher move post report as 
carryouts declined along with production on the report along with weather 
concerns continuing to persist. On the report all wheat productions was 1.729 
bb versus 1.791 bb expected with old-crop carryout at 655 mb versus 684 mb 
expected, and new at 619 mb versus 651 mb expected. Weather will continue to be 
challenging in the short term for much of the Northern Hemisphere, along with 
little change in action along the Black Sea. KC wheat is back to a 58-cent 
discount to Minneapolis in flat action, and at a 98-cent premium to Chicago, at 
the high end of the range. The KC July chart has support at the fresh high at 
$12.92, with support the upper Bollinger Band at $12.54 with the 20-day moving 
average well below the market at $11.64.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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